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Sunday, January 9, 2005
Baccarat Bet Selection Design
Hello everyone,
An interesting post
was made by Oen at the
LTW discussion forum
on how to design a bet selection for Baccarat and
I'd like to share it with you today.
"There are two types of bet selections: a pattern based and template based
bet selection. For the discussion today, I will discuss only the pattern
based bet selection. A pattern based bet selection is a way of bet
tracking based on previous or past decisions, while a template based bet
selection is tracking, which is not based on previous decisions and is
predetermined and independent on previous results.
There are systems, which are independent of bet selections. They treat bet
selection as insignificant. These systems usually follow blindly the
progressions.
As you may know, we cannot predict a future outcome. This does not mean,
however, that past decisions cannot be useful. Past decisions will form
patterns or formations, which we can use as a reference for our bet
selections. We see many times a shoe running choppy, streaky and
getting into other formations.
Let's take a look at the
following mappings:
Last 1 decision
There are 4 ways to map for the last 1 decision. Read: b>b, if the
last 1 decision is b, then bet b.
b>b
p>p
b>p
p>b
Last 2 decisions
There are 8 ways to map for the last 2 decisions.
bp>b
bp>p
pb>b
pb>p
pp>b
pp>p
bb>b
bb>p
Last 3 decisions
There are 16 ways to map for last 3 decisions.
bbb>b
bbp>b
bpb>b
bpp>b
bbb>p
bbp>p
bpb>p
bpp>p
pbb>b
pbp>b
ppb>b
ppp>b
pbb>p
pbp>p
ppb>p
ppp>p
Last 4 decisions
There are 32 ways to map for last 4 decisions.
…
bbbb>p
bbpp>b
ppbb>p
…
Last 5 decisions
There are 64 ways to map for last 5 decisions.
…..
bbppb>b
ppbbp>p
…..
If you will, there are 2*power (2,n) ways to map for the last n decisions.
Let me give some examples for classic and commercial bet selections using
the above mappings (or rules)
A. Bet p only
1. p>p
2. b>p
B. FTL (Follow The Last)
1. b>b
2. p>p
C. oFTL (opposite to Follow The Last)
1. b>p
2. p>b
D. DBL (Decision Before Last)
1. bp>b
2. pb>p
3. pp>p
4. bb>b
E. oDBL (opposite to Decision Before Last)
1. bp>p
2. pb>b
3. pp>b
4. bb>p
F. Wrangler march
1. Wait for one decision, then
........ 1. b>b
........ 2. p>p
2. Bet the side until two losses in a row, then switch to the other side.
3. ppbb>p (pure ppbb)
4. bbpp>b (pure bbpp)
5. ppbbp>p (pure ppbb)
6. bbppb>b (pure bbpp)
The next step is to analyze the losing and winning streaks of the designed
bet selection, take FTL as example.
…111111..., you will have losing string …LLLLLL…..
…121212…, you will have losing and winning sequence …LLWLLWLLW…..
…131313…, you will have losing and winning sequence …LLWWLLWWLLWW…..
…222222…, you will have losing and winning sequence …LWLWLWLW…..
etc.
So, the weakness of FTL is the single chop pattern for example: …bpbpbp…,
you will lose every hand.
Beside the rules, which refer to the past decisions, you could certainly add
other rules (complex or simple and no one hinders you from doing that) to
your designed bet selection (fictive or no bet). These additional rules are
called restrictions. You restrict the bet selection because of the losing
streak you want to handle. This is one example why you would want to
add additional rules.
For example:
First variation of FTL:
FTL (Follow The Last) with restriction
1. b>b
2. p>p
3. If it runs two losses in a row, then stop betting and resume betting
after a win.
Second variation of FTL:
FTL (Follow The Last) with restriction
1. b>b
2. p>p
3. If it runs two losses in a row, then switch to b>p or p>b. After a
loss, switch it back.
You can find many ways to implement a restriction.
The next important step is to design the progressions you want to use to
accompany the designed bet selection. Progressions can be positive or
negative. Principally try to avoid steep progressions. Flattened
progressions or flat bets with a partial parlay are favorable.
The last step is to perform tests. Find out which betting strings form
losing and winning bets.
When you use the above for real in a casino, there are a few other important
factors you need to consider, such as MM (Money Management). This is not
really a progression. It has much to do with the way you want to
handle the money you play with. Other factors are self control,
patience, emotions, attitude, etc.
Another way to design a bet selection refers to how you wish to handle
losing streaks. Please remember that every bet selection has its
losing and winning strings, there are no exceptions. The question is how
often they occur. You can find out about this by testing or actual
play.
For example that …22222… statistically may happen more often than …44444…..
For example, how can one handle the string: 1111…., ….22222…., and 1212121?
The rule which handles …11111…. is
1. bpb>p
2. pbp>b
The rule which handles …22222…. is
1. ppbb>p (pure ppbb)
2. bbpp>b (pure bbpp)
3. ppbbp>p (pure ppbb)
4. bbppb>b (pure bbpp)
The rule which handles …12121212…. is
1. pbb>p
2. bpp>b
3. pbbp>b
4. bppb>p
Additional rules to handle a streak of 3 are:
1. bbb>b
2. ppp>p
This is only one solution to the above question and you may find others. You
only need to use common sense by observing the shoes.
No matter how simple or complicated your designed bet selection is, there
will be times you will encounter winning streaks and losing streaks. Stay on
simple rather complicated bet selections."
Some comments made on this post:
"One other way that I have been experimenting with is to bet Banker only,
since statistically Banker will show more times than Player.
The rules:
When you begin a shoe, wait for a Banker to show, then place your first bet
on Bank.
Continue betting on Bank until 3 losses in a row.
After three losses, do not bet until Banker appears again  then resume.
If Banker loses immediately after resumption, stop and begin the process
again.
Since you are guaranteed to hit those three losses in a row, I prefer a more
flat type bet progression  called Alexambert. You can find the rules for
playing Alexambert on the WinnMaxx.com site (you have to be a member, but
that doesn't cost anything so sign up to learn about the progression).
The Alexambert progression I have been using is 111444777, etc.
(it's more than just an upasyoulose, downasyouwin, so check out the
site for the rules).
I don't go beyond 1114447. WinnMaxx lists several other variations
for you to check out."
"There are a few other bet selection techniques, such as 'antistreak":
waiting for X number of decisions and betting the opposite. I know somebody
who is doing extremely well playing a the same "template based" 4 bet
combination over and over with different levels of a martingale.
For example BPBB, any win say at $25 units, then the next two bets are
watched, should they lose all 4 bets, another 4 step Martingale is used say
at $50. Another template based betting technique is a simple crossover:
always bet the opposite of your last bet. This way one can't simply say you
will lose against PBPP, you would only lose against PBPP if it occurs when
you commence your 4 step betting sequence (independent betting for a game of
independent trials).
Crossover will provide a win "somewhere" ?
11111 (50% of the time)
12121
22222
3+ 3+ 3+
However your MM plays an important role here. It's not a bad bet
selection, considering it only loses against 50% of all chops, so you have
now narrowed down the field. More suitable for Martingale than
anything else, or twice your normal playing unit level.
In regards to the 21's and 12's, MM techniques can turn these from
potential losses to pushes playing FTL.
You can also base your game on probability, similar to antistreak. For the
same reason that an entire shoe is not going to chop or produce 22 results.
You may see the following combination 313131 (a pattern of 12).
This is not going to continue. It will eventually have to break (we
just really don't know when). You need to chose your own antipattern
figure, and bet against it. You continue to bet higher on the
antipattern figure and the more abstract the pattern the better it is.
The frequency of occurrence is an interesting concept, unless you have an
extremely streaky shoe. The first line is more populated than the
second, the second more populated than the third line etc.
Given the above, if you played FTL only, you lose all first line
decisions, and there certainly are more of them.
My advice is that you should never play with one tactic in mind, be DBL, or
FTL. You rather need to use a selection according to what the shoe is doing,
although this can change in an instance.
An important aspect is what I refer to as "Trending the Shoe". We can
work our strategy around it. If the shoe is streaky play FTL, if it's
choppy play DBL, but a choppy shoe can easily produce a string of 22
results, refer to as the 2 chop.
So we need trigger points to change from one tactic to another. Those can be
identified by observing the shoe (last few results), or by a run of losing
bets. Yes I'm totally in I agreement with the rule restrictions, not
forgetting the very useful tactic bet selection known as WATCH, if the trend
is hard to gauge.
In regards to the partial parlay and my experience with it, it relies too
much on luck , which could be fine for a possible recovery, and it can
surely protect your bankroll, but the odds are very much against you
considering the frequency of obtaining back to back wins.
I'm all for deep progressions, while they can but you in a mess, they can
work wonders, but do they have other requirements such as more than 1 win?
Short progressions in my opinion can have you going around in circles and
getting you nowhere. The casinos don't mind this, of course. However
with deep progressions, they do place counter measures such as table limits.
My local casino has tables that have a min $10 and $10K table differential.
How can you lose with that kind of spread? That's a 16 step
progression using a normal Fibonacci, playing with a $25k bank and playing
$10 unit value. You would die of boredom, but you could do it for a
living.
You mention "you use common sense by observing the shoes", while I couldn't
agree more. However I wouldn't say the trend of one shoe will be the same as
the next after a shuffle. But this statement and action is crucial, because
if we are not using a template based bet selection, it should determine our
bet selection method."
"The d'Alembert progression can be considered as an arithmetic series:
1234567etc. with difference=1
The difference between two immediate steps is 1.
The progression rules say:
1. Start with 1 unit.
2. L > last bet unit + 1 unit
3. W> last bet unit ¨C 1 unit (stay 1 unit when reach step 1)
Alexembert progressions are variations of d'Alembert (see www.winmaxx.com
for further information). The progression steps vary by the difference
between the two immediate steps, which can be 2,3,4,.
A. 135791113etc. with difference=2
B. 14710131619etc. with difference=3
C. 15913172125etc. with difference=4
The progress rules state:
1. Start with 1 unit
2. Number of losses = Difference > last bet unit + Difference
3. Number of wins = Difference > last bet unit  Difference (stay 1 unit
when reach step 1)
We bet each step up to "Difference± losses or Difference ± wins". Its
intention is to bet lower bet units during losing streaks and higher bet
units during winning streaks.
Ernie's bet selection:
1. Wait for a BANKER to show:
1. b>b
2. Keep betting until 3 losses in a row, then stop betting and resume
betting after a BANKER appears.
3. If BANKER loses immediately after resumption, stop and begin the process
again.
The variation B. 14710131619etc. is used for the above bet selection.
Let me analyze the weakness of the bet selection for the worst cases:
111111 you have the L and W strings .. LWLWLWLW
121212 you have the L and W strings .. LLWLLWLLW
131313 you have the L and W strings .. LLLWLLLWLLLW
141414 you have the L and W strings .. LLLLWLLLLWLLLLW
222222 you have the L and W strings .. WLLWWLLWWLL
232323 you have the L and W strings .. WLLLWLLLWLLL
242424 you have the L and W strings .. WLLLLWLLLLWLLLL
You will encounter losing streaks when you shoes running like this:
B
PP
B
PP
BB
PP
B
PPPPP
BB
PPP
BB
PPPP
B
PPP
B
PP
It means that you see more PLAYER than BANKER within section of a shoe. I
checked the Zumma and found out there are many shoes running similar like
this.
Certainly what you can do is that stop betting, change table or bet the
other dominant side with the same bet selection. If you are confident that
by statistics say that BANKER will show more times than PLAYER, you should
bet the way you bet. I personally also saw that shoes ran more BANKER than
PLAYER. Once I saw that after half of the shoe have been dealt there are
only few PLAYER and many and many of BANKER. Further what you can do is to
qualify the table first for a few hands whether the table will show more
BANKER or PLAYER before betting."
"Actually I plan to post separately the discussion of how to design a
template based bet selection. You are right that there other bet selection
techniques such as template based and others (such as systems depending on
MM only) not classified as pattern and template based bet selection. I
will outline a few, which you have mentioned.
For example:
1. Banjo's template
2. Predetermined bets (like Izak's "How to make 10 units in even money bets"
system)
3. bpbpbpbp. (zigzag bet no matter what will happen)
4. bbbbbbbb. (oneside bet no matter what will happen)
5. Coin tossing (H=b, T=p)
6. nfigures betting (for example: bbbppbpp, n=2 or ppb for n=3 ˇ)
7. Antipattern (for example waiting for a streak of n, than bet the
opposite)
etc.
As long as that the bet tracking does not refer to past decisions, then this
tracking will be categorized as template based bet selection.
Let me outline Crossover bet selection. Crossover can be considered as
zigzag template based or pattern based depending on the first bet selection
and thereafter.
Template based Crossover selection; LB=Last Bet:
1. >p or >b
2. p(LB)>b
3. b(LB)>p
[p(LB)>b will be read as if Last Bet is p, then bet b]
Pattern based Crossover selection; LB=Last Bet:
1. Wait for the first decision:
.... 1. b>p
.... 2. p>b
2. p(LB)>b
3. b(LB)>p
As to the AntiPattern, which can be treated as pattern based or template
based bet selection. It depends on how you see the decisions and the
template.
You are right in regards to progression that you could make living when you
use deep progression. But on the other hand, I think that a few gamblers
will use a deep progression.
Basically I would say if you could design a good and proper bet selection
then you can be sure that you can enlighten the MM/progression you are
using."
"So far I have discussed pattern
based bet selections with the reference of past decisions. Now I am going to
touch on statistical recordings based on counting and the calculation of the
p and b appearances or occurrences, which can definitely be used to chose a
proper and bet selection.
Power(2,n) choices
Let me calculate the number of shoes if we play n numbers of hands.
If there is only one hand to play, then we have two choices of decisions:
B
P
If there are two hands to play, then we have four choices:
BB
BP
PB
PP
If there are four hands to play, then we have eight choices:
BBB
BBP
BPB
BPP
PBB
PBP
PPB
PPP
If there are four hands to play, then we have sixteen choices:
BBBB
BBBP
BBPB
BBPP
BPBB
BPBP
BPPB
BPPP
PBBB
PBBP
PBPB
PBPP
PPBB
PPBP
PPPB
PPPP
If there are five hands to play, then we have thirty two choices.
So, if there are n (>=1) hands to play, then we have power(2,n) choices.
Let's assume that a Baccarat session will end by approximately more or less
within 60 hands. So, if there are 60 hands to play, then we have power(2,60)
= 1.152.921.504.606.850.000 combinations of decisions.
Law of Series
The distribution of decisions can be grouped into series. There are series
of 1 or also called as singles, series of 2, series of 3 etc. The law of
series appearance (Binomial distribution) can be expressed as the following:
Single appearances will hit twice as many as series of 2.
Series of 2 appearances will hit twice as many as series of 3.
Series of 3 appearances will hit twice as many as series of 4.
Series of 4 appearances will hit twice as many as series of 5.
Series of 5 appearances will hit twice as many as series of 6.
Series of 6 appearances will hit twice as many as series of 7.
.
.
.
Series of n appearances will hit twice as many as series of n+1.
For example:
SERIES.............. PLAY......... %
1 series of 7......7 plays ..... 0.78
2 series of 6.....12 plays .....1.57
4 series of 5......20 plays.....3.15
8 series of 4......32 plays.... 6.30
16 series of 3....48 plays.. 12.59
32 series of 2... 64 plays...25.19
64 series of 1... 64 plays.. 50.39
TOTAL 127 series... 247 plays...100.00
Law of even distribution equilibrium/equipartition
The law of even distribution states that p and b's are distributed evenly on
the long term when a large number of hands is dealt.
Deviation of Equipartition
Deviation of Equipartition expresses that in the short term b's will be
dominant over p's or p's will be dominant over b's.
Let me show you an example for the application of the Law of series to bet
selection:
1. Bet singles
2. If singles bet lost, bet series of 2
3. If series of 2 lost, then stop betting
4. Resume betting after the series is broken.
Or
1. b>p
2. p>b
3. bb>p
4. pp>b
5. (bbbˇ)>no bet
6. (pppˇ)>no bet
7. (bbbˇp)>b
8. (pppˇb)>p
With the above background, we can raise the following questions.
How many p's and b's (1figure) are dealt in one shoe?
How many pp, pb, bp, and bb's (2figures) are dealt in one shoe?
How many ppp, ppb, pbp, pbb, bpp, bpb, bbp and bbb (3figures) are dealt in
one shoe?
How many singles, series of 2, series of 3, series of 4 etc. are dealt in
one shoe?
How many wins and losses are dealt in one shoe?
What is the difference or deviation between p's and b's (1figure) dealt in
one shoe?
You can ask the same question for 2figures, 3figures etc.
What is the distance between p and b (1figure) dealt in one shoe?
You can ask the same question for 2figure, 3figure etc.
The list of questions can get longer and longer.
By observing statistical records, you will be able to find out if the
shoe ran choppy, streaky, mixed, pdominant or bdominant, etc. With
this information on hand, you will be able hopefully to chose a proper
bet selection and design a bet selection based on the statistics. For higher
figure play you will be able to see how each of the groups is developed.
Let me show you a small example for 1figure (p and b) by recording the
number of p's and b's being dealt and calculate the difference between p and
b.
#....decision...p.......b.....(pb)
1........p............1........0.......1
2........p.............2.......0.......2
3........b.............2.......1.......1
4........b.............2.......2.......0
5........b.............2.......3.......1
6........b.............2.......4.......2
7........b.............2.......5.......3
8........p.............3.......5.......2
9........b.............3.......6.......3
10.......p............4.......6.......2
11.......b............4.......7.......3
12.......p............5.......7.......2
13.......p............6.......7.......1
14.......b............6.......8.......2
15.......b............6.......9.......3
# is the number of hands being dealt
p is the count of the p occurrences
b is the count of the b occurrences
(pb) is the difference between the occurrences of b and p
P
4 :
3 :
2 : *
1 :* *
0 :*
1 : * *
2 : * * * * *
3 : * * * *
4 :
B
You will see how b's and p's develop whether it will be choppy, streaky,
pdominant or bdominant. You can even chart the (pb) and see the wave
formation. After recoding a few hands you will be able to choose a proper
bet selection. So, the statistical recording serves as a tool for you to
choose a bet selection.
For example:
1. (bp) is absolute increased >b
2. (bp) is increased >p
3. (bp) is equal >no bet
Let me show you another example for 1figure (p and b) by recording the p's
and b's being dealt and calculate the distance between p and/or b.
#....decision....pd/bd
1.........p..............1
2.........p..............1
3.........b..............1
4........ b..............1
5.........b..............1
6.........b..............1
7.........b..............1
8.........p..............5
9.........b..............2
10.......p..............2
11...... b..............2
12.......p..............2
13.......p..............1
14.......b..............3
15.......b..............1
# is the numbering of hands being dealt
decision is either p or b
pd/bd is the relative distance between two immediate occurrences of b or p
The statistical recording can prepared as well for other questions, for
example 2figure (pp, pb, bp and bb) or single (p,b), 2series (pp, bb),
3series (ppp,bbb) etc.
So what I have outlined is the use of statistical recording of past
decisions as a tool for choosing a proper bet selection or even can be used
for designing a new bet selection. You can do it and it is only with simple
math."
Thanking Oen for his useful post.
Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak
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