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=================================================== Tuesday, July 24, 2007

The Trend is Your Friend

Hello everyone,

There have always been questions in gambling about what a trend is, how it's defined, when it starts, when it ends, is it worth betting with it or against it, etc. In this newsletter, I would like to express my views about them.

A trend in gambling is what I would call as a repetition of a certain event. This event can be either a streak or a chop of a certain even bet, a certain dozen in Roulette, a hot or cold table in Craps, the repetition of a certain pattern, etc. If a trend is ever to occur, there is a belief or rather hope that it will continue. That's why by betting on a certain trend punters believe they can make some profits. Some believe that a trend can't or should not continue for too long and they start betting against it. Either way, one must have a solid strategy and stick to it and most importantly to have a session win target and a loss limit should things not work out the way we expected.

First of all, one must provide his/her own definition of a certain trend. Let's say, we're talking about betting on Reds or Blacks in roulette. One could define a single repetition of either color as a trend. One could also define the twice repetition of that even bet as a trend. So, it is really a matter of definition. Therefore, when this event is encountered, one can mark it as a beginning of a trend and one can start betting on it. If the trend continues, one will accumulate units and if the trend stops, one will stop betting on this trend.

Let's take an example and define our trend being the triple occurrence of a certain color. So, if we see three consecutive Reds or Blacks in Roulette, we will mark it as a trend. Now, what could be the advantage of betting on this kind of trend? It is not unlikely to see quite a few continuous Blacks or Reds in Roulette. Even if the table is choppy, eventually one is likely to encounter a series of 5,7 or more Blacks or Reds in a row at one point of time and more. If one is betting on such a trend, one would pile up as many units as the number of Blacks and Reds (minus 4), that have shown up. Why minus 4? The first 3 is the trigger and last bet is a loss, because the trend has stopped.

As you presumed, yes, we do stop betting on that trend, when it breaks or on the very first loss.

So, if we ever have 8 Reds in a row, we will make 4 units on that trend betting flat units.

There is, of course, no guarantee that a certain trend will continue. It may stop right away, even on our very first bet, that is, 3 successive Reds are followed by a Black or 3 successive Blacks are followed by a Red. However, because we stop betting on this trend right away when it loses, we only lose only 1 unit, betting flat.

We can therefore conclude that if we bet with the trend, we are likely to win 1 or more units for each continuation of that trend and we lose only 1 unit, each time the trend stops. The trend may continue for one bet and lose the next, in which case we break even for that sequence.

Now, do not look at this as a system. Betting the opposite of one color every time there is a succession of three will not make you win on the long run. After all, regardless of what happened before, the chances of the next decision being red or black is still 50-50 and even less because of the zeros. Therefore, on the long run, one would lose to the house edge. On the short run, however, if we catch the trend when it occurs, we are likely to make some profits, provided the trend makes us more profits than the number of times it does not continue.

Let's look at the following illustration of the above strategy and observe how we could make 10 units, betting flat, not more than 1 unit each time, simply by waiting for the red or black trend to occur based on our definition of three successive ones. We won't be placing any bets until we see three reds or blacks in a row. We will mark under column Trend either B or R, depending on which color has shown 3 successive times. You will note that if we win the bet, the last 3 colors are also going to be the same, thus showing the continuation of the trend and we keep betting on the same color until it breaks once.

Spin	Number	Red/Black	Trend	Bet	W/L	Units	Net Units
1	17	B
2	17	B
3	3	R
4	24	B				0	0
5	2	B				0	0
6	7	R				0	0
7	31	B				0	0
8	27	R				0	0
9	36	R				0	0
10	15	B				0	0
11	8	B				0	0
12	30	R				0	0
13	15	B				0	0
14	15	B				0	0
15	36	R				0	0
16	3	R				0	0
17	26	B				0	0
18	15	B				0	0
19	28	B	B			0	0
20	8	B	B	B	W	1	1
21	26	B	B	B	W	1	2
22	0	G		B	L	-1	1
23	00	G				0	1
24	6	B				0	1
25	29	B				0	1
26	4	B	B			0	1
27	27	R		B	L	-1	0
28	25	R				0	0
29	4	B				0	0
30	6	B				0	0
31	20	B	B			0	0
32	00	G		B	L	-1	-1
33	1	R				0	-1
34	19	R				0	-1
35	8	B				0	-1
36	25	R				0	-1
37	36	R				0	-1
38	24	B				0	-1
39	5	R				0	-1
40	29	B				0	-1
41	33	B				0	-1
42	32	R				0	-1
43	4	B				0	-1
44	27	R				0	-1
45	19	R				0	-1
46	22	B				0	-1
47	29	B				0	-1
48	24	B	B			0	-1
49	32	R		B	L	-1	-2
50	7	R				0	-2
51	5	R	R			0	-2
52	5	R	R	R	W	1	-1
53	5	R	R	R	W	1	0
54	20	B		R	L	-1	-1
55	33	B				0	-1
56	6	B	B			0	-1
57	31	B	B	B	W	1	0
58	24	B	B	B	W	1	1
59	34	R		B	L	-1	0
60	2	B				0	0
61	29	B				0	0
62	25	R				0	0
63	15	B				0	0
64	17	B				0	0
65	33	B	B			0	0
66	17	B	B	B	W	1	1
67	31	B	B	B	W	1	2
68	4	B	B	B	W	1	3
69	15	B	B	B	W	1	4
70	22	B	B	B	W	1	5
71	17	B	B	B	W	1	6
72	13	B	B	B	W	1	7
73	18	R		B	L	-1	6
74	8	B				0	6
75	18	R				0	6
76	14	R				0	6
77	6	B				0	6
78	1	R				0	6
79	6	B				0	6
80	21	R				0	6
81	24	B				0	6
82	17	B				0	6
83	32	R				0	6
84	36	R				0	6
85	3	R	R			0	6
86	33	B		R	L	-1	5
87	1	R				0	5
88	21	R				0	5
89	22	B				0	5
90	30	R				0	5
91	2	B				0	5
92	32	R				0	5
93	27	R				0	5
94	15	B				0	5
95	20	B				0	5
96	19	R				0	5
97	26	B				0	5
98	3	R				0	5
99	7	R				0	5
100	33	B				0	5
101	17	B				0	5
102	20	B	B			0	5
103	26	B	B	B	W	1	6
104	22	B	B	B	W	1	7
105	16	R		B	L	-1	6
106	24	B				0	6
107	30	R				0	6
108	17	B				0	6
109	15	B				0	6
110	17	B	B			0	6
111	0	G		B	L	-1	5
112	19	R				0	5
113	11	B				0	5
114	11	B				0	5
115	13	B	B			0	5
116	18	R		B	L	-1	4
117	14	R				0	4
118	22	B				0	4
119	36	R				0	4
120	31	B				0	4
121	28	B				0	4
122	31	B	B			0	4
123	36	R		B	L	-1	3
124	34	R				0	3
125	21	R	R			0	3
126	0	G		R	L	-1	2
127	12	R				0	2
128	12	R				0	2
129	10	B				0	2
130	23	R				0	2
131	20	B				0	2
132	13	B				0	2
133	16	R				0	2
134	17	B				0	2
135	11	B				0	2
136	11	B	B			0	2
137	19	R		B	L	-1	1
138	29	B				0	1
139	2	B				0	1
140	0	G				0	1
141	18	R				0	1
142	21	R				0	1
143	33	B				0	1
144	26	B				0	1
145	33	B	B			0	1
146	31	B	B	B	W	1	2
147	2	B	B	B	W	1	3
148	19	R		B	L	-1	2
149	18	R				0	2
150	31	B				0	2
151	9	R				0	2
152	32	R				0	2
153	34	R	R			0	2
154	9	R	R	R	W	1	3
155	12	R	R	R	W	1	4
156	30	R	R	R	W	1	5
157	7	R	R	R	W	1	6
158	1	R	R	R	W	1	7
159	35	B		R	L	-1	6
160	35	B				0	6
161	15	B	B			0	6
162	26	B	B	B	W	1	7
163	6	B	B	B	W	1	8
164	27	R		B	L	-1	7
165	00	G				0	7
166	31	B				0	7
167	1	R				0	7
168	18	R				0	7
169	29	B				0	7
170	34	R				0	7
171	9	R				0	7
172	0	G				0	7
173	20	B				0	7
174	12	R				0	7
175	32	R				0	7
176	34	R	R			0	7
177	13	B		R	L	-1	6
178	32	R				0	6
179	11	B				0	6
180	26	B				0	6
181	33	B	B			0	6
182	19	R		B	L	-1	5
183	27	R				0	5
184	1	R	R			0	5
185	16	R	R	R	W	1	6
186	32	R	R	R	W	1	7
187	9	R	R	R	W	1	8
188	33	B		R	L	-1	7
189	36	R				0	7
190	0	G				0	7
191	11	B				0	7
192	14	R				0	7
193	13	B				0	7
194	7	R				0	7
195	34	R				0	7
196	16	R	R			0	7
197	9	R	R	R	W	1	8
198	32	R	R	R	W	1	9
199	21	R	R	R	W	1	10
200	18	R	R	R	W	1	11
201	10	B		R	L	-1	10

As you can see, we were able to catch a few of those trends in spins 66-72, 185-188 and 197-200, each time making 3-6 units profit, while the other attempts not costing much. We make 10 units at the end of spin 201, which is a good time to take a break and rejoice the profits.

This way of playing does not put a strain on our bankrolls. It's stress free and if the trend continues, it's rewarding. It feels like finally catching the big fish we've been waiting for. Some prefer even to parlay those multiple wins and let the wins ride. One could, for instance, wait for 4 consecutive wins and convert their chip to 16 chips at the end of the 4 wins. In our example above, this happens 3 times, producing 45 units (3 X 15) profit minus the other 18 units for the 18 times the 4 consecutive wins does not occur, thus profiting overall 45-18 = 27 units.

Wishing you all the best,
Izak

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