Tips and strategies to help make you a winning casino player
Learn: Blackjack, Baccarat, Craps, Roulette, Slots, Video Poker, Pai Gow Poker,
Texas Hold'em, Caribbean Stud, Let It Ride, Casino War, Big Six, Sic Bo (NEW!)
Win more, more often with proven betting methods from the systems gallery
A secure on-line order form to purchase products advertised by Let's Talk
All about gambling at online casinos. Find out where the best deals are
Best Casino Bonuses - NEW!
The best collection of on-line casino bonuses, where you can
cash $802 on your sign-up.
Sign our guestbook, refer a friend, link to other gambling sites.
Gambling News - NEW!
Latest Gambling News - updated daily including gambling
articles, joke of the day and a gambling dictionary.
Click above to read the current edition of our
weekly newsletter. Then get your own free subscription right here. Enter your e-mail
address for immediate delivery of an introductory issue, including a FREE ROULETTE SYSTEM:
Please tell all
your friends about it.
Post a gambling question or opinion - get an answer .
Wanna Win At Slots? Click
It's now $50 bonus every month!
Thursday, July 31, 2003
Dog versus Dog Strategy - Follow Up
last week's newsletter, we talked about a sports betting strategy, that
involved betting on an underdog game with positive vigs and at the same time
betting on the run-line of the opposite team, which also became an underdog
bet with a positive vig. The idea was to make a profit, no matter
which team won, provided if the run-line won, it should cover the 1.5
There have been some comments about this
strategy and this week, we would like to follow up on them.
First of all, here are the results of the
games that were listed on July 24:
1) Pittsburgh Pirates +106 (7) and
Cincinnati Reds - run line +165 (5) = +0.06 unit
2) Florida Marlins +151 (2) and Atlanta Braves, run line +120 (5)
(a good one) = +0.20 unit
3) Colorado Rockies +178 (0) and Los Angeles Dodgers, run line +105 (1)
= -2 units
4) Arizona Diamondbacks, run line +130 (2) and San Francisco Giants
+119 (3) = +0.19 unit
5) New York Mets +147 (1) and Montreal Expos, run line +135 (5)
(a very good one) = +0.35 unit
6) Houston Astros, run line +134 (1) and Milwaukee Brewers +111 (2)
= +0.11 unit
7) Kansas City Royals +122 (2) and Minnesota Twins, run line +152 (6)
(a good one) = +0.52 unit
8) Chicago White Sox +130 (4) and Toronto Blue Jays, run line +140 (3)
(a very good one) = +0.30 unit
9) Anaheim Angels, run line +126 (10) and Texas Rangers +113 (6)
= +0.26 unit
If you had placed bets on all 9
opportunities, you would have ended up just about even. Notice that 8 out
of 9 bets produced a profit and only one (no. 3) lost 2 units.
Had you selected only the good and the
very good ones as recommended, you would have ended up with a score of 1.37
units. With $100 betting units, this would mean a profit $137.
People presented their views in the
and here are some comments:
I personally would like to thank you for posting the method. If you stick to
games that offer the most value I think it will do all right. Thanks Again.
The more methods we have at our side to beat the man the better our chances
of winning. You can never learn enough."
Thanks for posting that, its a great idea.
I noticed in the newsletter, you posted that if one had played only the
"good" and "very good" opportunities, one would have made the profit,
however I am wanting to know, what is your criteria to be marked as either
"good" or "very good"?"
My reply to this was:
"A selection is good if it produces at least 0.20 unit
profit and is very good if it produces at least 0.30 unit profit as opposed
More comments were:
"Here's some interesting facts.
Research shows that about 30 percent of all baseball games are decided by
exactly one run. That's less than one game in three. In about 40 percent of
those one-run decisions, the underdog wins the game straight-up. The favored
team wins by one run in the other 60 percent.
This translates into roughly one game in six in which the straight bettor
does better than the run-line bettor (the situation in which the favored
team wins by exactly one run).
The margin of victory is two runs or more in about 70 percent of all games.
The favorite wins the significant majority of these games. In fact, on an
overall basis, the favorite wins slightly over 40 percent of all games by
two runs or more."
"If one played every game with the above method I am
pretty sure it would lose but we have to look only for the best (value)
games to play."
"It was an interesting theory Izak put forward in his
newsletter last week and I decided to do a sample test using a variation of
his theory. First of all I converted the odds of all games to percentages
and treated each game as an arbitrage situation, although its not a true
arbitrage as the money line favorite can't win by exactly one run otherwise
you lose. The average percentage of each game was 86% (ranged from 81% to
91%) meaning if you bet $86 on each game in proportion you would be
guaranteed a return of $100. There have been 96 games in the past seven days
and you would have won 88 of these (91.6%). So an outlay of 96 x $86 =$8256
and a return of 88 x $100 = $8800 a profit of $544, a 6.5% return on
investment. These odds are the best odds available from Canbet and Pinnacle
at the same time when they are released. Shopping around you might be able
to squeeze an extra 1% .
Obviously this sample is too small as long term statistics show that 26% of
all MLB games are won by one run. The burning question is of course how many
of these are won by the money line favorites. Statistics also show that
favorites win about 54% of all games. If this is the case 14 of these 26
would be winners and our % of winners overall would be 86%. So lets do some
more math, outlay 100 games x $86 = $8600 and a return of 86 wins x $100,
exactly break even.
Also another theory is that had you placed $100 on each team on each game
where the odds of both teams were +130 or above there were 10 games all won
for a profit of $339, a17% return.
I would be glad to hear any comment on this as we are close to having a
surefire system here. We need more stats, does anyone have these."
Well, you can have all the stats you need at the
We will continue to work on a surefire system, that will be profitable on
the long run.
Thank you for all who provided those valuable
Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
|WOULD YOU LIKE
If you missed any
newsletter, click here for an archive.