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================================================    Thursday, March 4, 2004
 
IBS Based 10-4 Strategy - Part III

Hello everyone,

Some people emailed Ervin and wanted to know how to get more units out of the game so Ervin  thought to suggest you a way that he uses sometimes. Plus everyone wanted him to better define the rules of his IBS based 10-4 strategy.

So here it goes.  First on how to get more units per game.

It is very aggressive but works great.

What you do is after your second loss when you write out the string, add 3 units like this:

1L 1-1
2L 1-1-1-3

Count back 10 decisions.  Choose the side that is showing the strongest. If they are equal I generally go with the Player side. Keep a running count going if it falls to 4 on the side you are betting then stop and re-write your line to reflect only the amount needed to break even or the amount need to break even minus 1/3 or  the sum of your line. Or drop the line completely and start over if you are up and just want to get out of trouble.

When you play like this you cannot split your bets. You bet the sum of the first 4 numbers on a win instead of 3 and cancel 4 numbers until you clear your line or you reach a point where your next bet will put you down more than -50 units in which case you have been beaten.

I will put another example in the next few posts.  It is a game I played a while back.  I am a strong believer in the idea that since you are risking 50 units in every shoe you should try and win 50 units or as close to it as possible.

If someone out there wants to test this method that would be great. I would love to see the results. I think you can win far more shoes than you loose. Just try and avoid going into an extended string towards the end of a shoe like I did at hand number 64. Instead of going for the 1-1-1-3 extra 3 units I just tried a recovery. But really in that situation up like I was I should have not even tried that.

Also to better explain how I would select my bets mechanically: to start always bet for a chop. If first decision is P bet for B and vice versa. If you get two in a row PP or BB bet for a streak.

If you win on the streak for example

B
B-P1L
B-B2W

Your next 2 bets will be for a chop like this.

Example
B
B-P1L
B-B2W
B-P1L
P-P2W

If you lose, do your count and start the IBS string. You always try to catch the chops no matter how long the streak. A note about streaks: if I have lost in a streak of 5 of the same I do my count like normal and play the strongest side.  It is usually the same as the streak.

If the streak continues for 2 more bets I have made a recovery and now am in a streak of at least 7. I will once again try the first 2 bets for the opposite and if I lose both bets I am now in the midst of a streak of at least 9 in a row.

In this situation I will normally not do a count or try to make a recovery.  I will just start flat betting on that side 1 unit until it ends. Then I will start the game over as if I were starting a new game or quit the shoe, which is always good because in this situation you should be up a couple units.

Example
B
B P1L 1-1 -1 -1
B B2W 1-0 +2 +1
B P1L 1-1 -1 0
B P2L 1-1-1-3 -2 -2 B 5-10
B B1W 1-1-3 +1 -1 6
B B5W 1-0 +5 +4 7-resume
B P1L 1-1 -1 +3
B P2L 1-1-1 recovery only -2 +1 flat bet
B B1W +1 +2
B B1W +1 +3
P start new game
B B1W 1-0 +1 +4
B P1L 1-1 -1 +3
P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +1 P 5-10
B P1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 0 4-drop string
P P1W 1-0 +1 +1
B B1W 1-0 +1 +2

If I end a recovery and I hit a 2 in a row I make my first bet for the streak like normal.  If it misses simply make the same bet again on the same side.

1. P
2. P B1L 1-1 -1 -1
3. P P2W 1-0 +2 +1
4. P B1L 1-1 -1 0
5. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 -2 P-8 in 10
6. P P1W 1-1-3 +1 -1 9
7. B P5L 1-1-3-5 -5 -6 8
8. B P9L 1-1-3-5-9 -9 -15 7
9. P P9W 9 +9 -6 8
10. P P9W 1-0 ( streak ) +9 +3 9-resume
11. B P1L 1-1 ( repeat ) -1 +2
12. P P2W 1-0 +2 +4

Also when I do a count, if I have not had 10 hands yet or have ended a long streak and I am starting over I double the number of a side I have like above. The game started with 5 in a row.  I didn't count the first hand because I didn't play it, so I got 4 x 2 = 8 in 10. This is just how I come up with it.  Maybe you have some other way. In any case I was going to make my recovery on the Player side.

The important thing is if the side you are making your recovery on falls down to 4, that is when you need to make some decisions. Do I continue? Am I up enough to drop some and then continue? How hard has my last few recoveries been? Is this shoe mostly streaks or chops? Should I just take what I have and quit? These are all some of the questions I find myself asking whenever I go into a recovery.

For purely testing purposes I would try dropping the largest number in my string, which is usually half. Re-write the string to reflect the drop. Recounting and going with the side that is showing the strongest. Keep repeating until you recover or lose.

Example string

1-1-3-5-9 If count hits 4 then drop 9 units from string.

Note: I add my losses lowest to highest.

1-1-3-5 next bet 9 losses then

1-1-3-5-9 not 9-1-1-3-5

Re-write string to lowest. The way I do this is take my remaining amount which is 9 divide it by half which is 5 rounded up. Make my first 4 numbers in my string total 5 with the remainder as the 5th number.

1-1-1-2-4 total = 9 units

I hope that explains things better for everyone.

I have made a recovery after 2 drops but never after 3. On the 2 drop situation I ended the game up but only by a unit or two. But I think I made that recovery just to see what would happen. If I have to make a drop I am generally done with that shoe.

If I manage to make a recovery of what is left and I am down I will play only until I am up a couple units and then quit. If I make a drop and recover and am up I will keep playing.  But if I hit a small down turn I am out.

One of the hardest things is knowing when to not try for a recovery or a recover plus, because you are to close to the end of a shoe. If I had to set a rule, I would say that after 55 hands never go for the extra 3 units, and after 60-65 never go for a recovery at all or at least make a guess as to how many hands you think are left in the shoe and unless you think that there is at least 8 or more don't attempt it.

Example Shoe

Bc 22 -1.1 Total +39.9

13. P
14. P B1L 1-1 -1 -1
15. P P2W 1-0 +2 +1
16. P B1L 1-1 -1 0
17. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 -2 P-8 in 10
18. P P1W 1-1-3 +1 -1 9
19. B P5L 1-1-3-5 -5 -6 8
20. B P9L 1-1-3-5-9 -9 -15 7
21. P P9W 9 +9 -6 8
22. P P9W 1-0 +9 +3 9-resume
23. B P1L 1-1 -1 +2
24. P P2W 1-0 +2 +4
25. P B1L 1-1 -1 +3
26. P P2W 1-0 +2 +5
27. P B1L 1-1 -1 +4
28. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +2 P-7
29. B P1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 +1 6
30. B P1L 1-1-1-1-1-3 -1 0 5
31. P P1W 1-1-1-1-3 +1 +1 6
32. B P4L 1-1-1-1-3-4 -4 -3 5
33. P P4W 3-4 +4 +1 6
34. B P7L 3-4-7 -7 -6 5
35. P P14W 1-0 +14 +8 6-resume
36. P B1L 1-1 -1 +7
37. B P2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +5 P-5
38. P P1W 1-1-3 +1 +6 6
39. P P5W 1-0 +5 +11 7-resume
40. B P1L 1-1 -1 +10
41. P P2W 1-0 +2 +12
42. P B1L 1-1 -1 +11
43. P P2W 1-0 +2 +13
44. B B1W 1-0 +1 +14
45. P P1W 1-0 +1 +15
46. B B1W 1-0 +1 +16
47. B P1L 1-1 -1 +15
48. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +13 P-6
49. P P1W 1-1-3 +1 +14 7
50. P P5W 1-0 +5 +19 8-resume
51. B B1W 1-0 +1 +20
52. B P1L 1-1 -1 +19
53. B B2W 1-0 +2 +21
54. P P1W 1-0 +1 +22
55. P B1L 1-1 -1 +21
56. P P2W 1-0 +2 +23
57. B B1W 1-0 +1 +24
58. P P1W 1-0 +1 +25
59. P B1L 1-1 -1 +24
60. P P2W 1-0 +2 +26
61. P B1L 1-1 -1 +25
62. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -3 +22 P-8
63. B P1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 +21 7
64. P P1W 1-1-1-3 +1 +22 8
65. P P6W 1-0 +6 +28 9-resume
66. B P1L 1-1 -1 +27
67. P P2W 1-0 +2 +29
68. B B1W 1-0 +1 +30
69. P P1W 1-0 +1 +31
70. B B1W 1-0 +1 +32
71. B P1L 1-1 -1 +31
72. B B2W 1-0 +2 +33
73. P P1W 1-0 +1 +34
74. B B1W 1-0 +1 +35
75. B P1L 1-1 -1 +34
76. P B2L 1-1-1( recovery only )-2 +32 B-6
77. B B1W 1-1 +1 +33 7
78. B B2W 1-0 +2 +35 8-resume
79. B B1W 1-0 +1 +36
80. P P1W 1-0 +1 +37
81. B B1W 1-0 +1 +38
82. B P1L 1-1 -1 +37
83. B B2W 1-0 +2 +39
84. P P1W 1-0 +1 +40
85. P Bc 22 -1.1 Total +39.9


As I go and play, when I run into interesting shoes like the one above I will post them. But I am spending a lot of time just playing now so it might take a while to get it up.

Here is an example I was test playing in Zumma today. You will love this one the 2-2-2 pattern was kicking hard.  But you can see how I dropped the losses and it kept the game under control.

DL = Drop Loss
R = Resume

Notice how I went with player whenever my count was even. When it dropped to 4 I re-counted and banker was at 6 so I went with banker at hand number 21 and dropped the highest number in my string 3 units.

Then at hand # 23 my count on banker hit 4. So I recounted, and banker was still showing 6 in 10.  So again I went with banker, but I summed up my losses and dropped half this time, which was 3.  I finally recovered in the next two hands # 24-25.

If I was playing this game for real, when I made my recovery at hand # 25, I probably would have quit this shoe. But I kept playing just for example and in this one I had to make 2 more drops.

I finally stopped at hand # 55 on a loss after a long run-up of chops at +19 with a total win of +18.25 units after subtracting banker commissions.

This shoe is a great example of how the different elements like the Drop loss, the recover plus, and the 10-4 count all work together to help me stay in control of my game and milk as many units as possible out of it.

Here is the shoe

Zumma book game: 39

1. P
2. B B1W 1-0 +1 +1
3. B P1L 1-1 -1 0
4. B B2W 1-0 +2 +2
5. P P1W 1-0 +1 +3
6. P B1L 1-1 -1 +2
7. P P2W 1-0 +2 +4
8. P B1L 1-1 -1 +3
9. B B2W 1-0 +2 +5
10. P P1W 1-0 +1 +6
11. P B1L 1-1 -1 +5
12. P P2W 1-0 +2 +7
13. B B1W 1-0 +1 +8
14. B P1L 1-1 -1 +7
15. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +5 P-7
16. B P1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 +4 6
17. P P1W 1-1-1-3 +1 +5 7
18. P P6W 1-0 +6 +11 8-R
19. B P1L 1-1 -1 +10
20. B P2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +8 P-5
21. B P1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 +7 4-B-6 DL-3
22. P B1L 1-1-1-1-1 -1 +6 5
23. P B1L 1-1-1-1-1-1 -1 +5 4-B-6 DL-3
24. B B1W 1-1 +1 +6 7
25. B B2W 1-0 +2 +8 8-R
26. P B1L 1-1 -1 +7
27. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +5 P-5
28. P P1W 1-1-3 +1 +6 6
29. B P5L 1-1-3-5 -5 +1 5
30. P P10W 1-0 +10 +11 6-R
31. P B1L 1-1 -1 +10
32. B P2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +8 P-6
33. B P1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 +7 5
34. B P1L 1-1-1-1-1-3 -1 +6 4-P-5 DL-3
35. P P1W 1-1-1-1 +1 +7 6
36. P P4W 1-0 +4 +11 7-R
37. B P1L 1-1 -1 +10
38. B P2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +8 B-6
39. P B1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 +7 5
40. P B1L 1-1-1-1-1-3 -1 +6 4-P-5 DL-3
41. P P1W 1-1-1-1 +1 +7 6
42. P P4W 1-0 +4 +11 7-R
43. P B1L 1-1 -1 +10
44. B B2W 1-0 +2 +12
45. P P1W 1-0 +1 +13
46. P B1L 1-1 -1 +12
47. P P2W 1-0 +2 +14
48. P B1L 1-1 -1 +13
49. B B2W 1-0 +2 +15
50. P P1W 1-0 +1 +16
51. B B1W 1-0 +1 +17
52. P P1W 1-0 +1 +18
53. B B1W 1-0 +1 +19
54. P P1W 1-0 +1 +20
55. P B1L 1-1 -1 +19 End
56. B
57. B Bc 15 -.75 Total +18.25
58. P
59. P
60. P
61. B
62. B

I have had a number of people ask through emails if we can get together and do some playing. Since all I do now is play Baccarat I think that is a good idea. Plus I love to play tag team against the Casinos.

I have worked out an itinerary and I plan on being in Atlantic City for the last 3 weeks of July.
What I want to do is go down to the board walk and play several different spots. Plus the beach will be nice and I don't know if I could take it if I couldn't go fishing for a whole month.

I'll post a topic with the name of the Hotel I'll be staying at and information on how to contact me when the time draws nearer if anyone wants to join the party.

If there is enough interest maybe we can get some discounts on some fun activities with group leverage and all that stuff. I know I wouldn't mind meeting Izak, the lord of the board.

The best thing though I would like to do is get together with like minded individuals and exchange playing strategies, techniques and ideas.

With me it's all about my game.

Here is another one. I am just random playing shoes in Zumma for the examples.

1. B
2. B P1L 1-1 -1 -1
3. B B2W 1-0 +2 +1
4. P P1W 1-0 +1 +2
5. B B1W 1-0 +1 +3
6. B P1L 1-1 -1 +2
7. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 0 B-8
8. P B1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 -1 7
9. B B1W 1-1-1-3 +1 +2 8-R
10. B B6W 1-0 +6 +8
11. P B1L 1-1 -1 +7
12. B B2W 1-0 +2 +9
13. B P1L 1-1 -1 +8
14. B B2W 1-0 +2 +10
15. P P1W 1-0 +1 +11
16. P B1L 1-1 -1 +10
17. B P2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +8 B6
18. P B1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 +7 5
19. B B1W 1-1-1-3 +1 +8 6
20. B B6W 1-0 +6 +13 7-R
21. P B1L 1-1 -1 +12
22. B B2W 1-0 +2 +14
23. B P1L 1-1 -1 +13
24. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +11 P-5
25. P P1W 1-1-3 +1 +12 6
26. B P5L 1-1-3-5 -5 +7 5
27. P P10W 1-0 +10 +17 6-R
28. B B1W 1-0 +1 +18
29. B P1L 1-1 -1 +17
30. B B2W 1-0 +2 +19
31. P P1W 1-0 +1 +20
32. P B1L 1-1 -1 +19
33. P P2W 1-0 +2 +21
34. P B1L 1-1 -1 +20
35. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -3 +17 P-7
36. B P1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 +16 6
37. B P1L 1-1-1-1-1-3 -1 +15 5
38. P P1W 1-1-1-1-3 +1 +16 6
39. P P4W 3 +4 +20 7
40. B P3L 3-3 -3 +17 6
41. P P6W 1-0 +6 +23 7-R
42. P B1L 1-1 -1 +22
43. B P2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +20 P-6
44. B P1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 +19 5
45. P P1W 1-1-1-3 +1 +20 6
46. P P6W 1-0 +6 +26 7-R
47. B P1L 1-1 -1 +25
48. P P2W 1-0 +2 +27
49. B B1W 1-0 +1 +28
50. B P1L 1-1 -1 +27
51. B B2W 1-0 +2 +29
52. P P1W 1-0 +1 +30
53. P B1L 1-1 -1 +29
54. P P2W 1-0 +2 +31
55. B B1W 1-0 +1 +32
56. B P1L 1-1 -1 +31
57. P B2L 1-1-1 -2 +29 P-5
58. P P1W 1-1 +1 +30 6
59. B P2L 1-1-2 -2 +28 5
60. P P4W 1-0 +4 +32 6-R
61. P B1L 1-1 -1 +31
62. P P2W 1-0 +2 +33
63. B B1W 1-0 +1 +34
64. P P1W 1-0 +1 +35
65. P B1L 1-1 -1 +34 End
66. P
67. P Bc 30 -1.5 Total +32.5
68. P
69. B

You can see that by adding the recovery plus 3 to the game it dramatically increases the amount of units you can win in a shoe. In just the last couple examples I have already made more units than I would be risking.

Here is another good example of the Drop loss.

Also In this example I realized something I need to get clearer on.

When you make your first count and it is even 5 in 10. I say go with player simply because of the commissions. But if you make your first count and Banker is stronger but it goes down to 4 and you have to recount and drop your losses and your count is now 5 in 10. What I would do is continue with banker until you win or lose.

You can see an example of this in hands #28 - 36. I had to drop 10 units but I still ended the game around +20.

If you get into a situation and you have to make 2 drops in a single down turn, chances are you will be down.  But if you are up anything, I suggest you take what you have and quit the shoe, because 3 drops will usually put you down so far, that if you continued you might win, but not much more than you would have if you stopped at the second drop.

You can also just stop at a second drop in a series and start over from where you are writing off all the losses if you are up or down a few units.

Just things to think about if you are in live play.

Zumma book game: 15

1. P
2. B B1W 1-0 +1 +1
3. P P1W 1-0 +1 +2
4. P B1L 1-1 -1 +1
5. P P2W 1-0 +2 +3
6. B B1W 1-0 +1 +4
7. P P1W 1-0 +1 +5
8. B B1W 1-0 +1 +6
9. B P1L 1-1 -1 +5
10. B B2W 1-0 +2 +7
11. P P1W 1-0 +1 +8
12. B B1W 1-0 +1 +9
13. B P1L 1-1 -1 +8
14. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +6 B-6
15. B B1W 1-1-3 +1 +7 7
16. P B5L 1-1-3-5 -5 +2 6
17. B B10W 1-0 +10 +12 7-R
18. B P1L 1-1 -1 +11
19. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +9 B-6
20. B B1W 1-1-3 +1 +10 7
21. B B5W 1-0 +4 +15 8-R
22. B B1W 1-0 +1 +16
23. P P1W 1-0 +1 +17
24. B B1W 1-0 +1 +18
25. B P1L 1-1 -1 +17
26. B B2W 1-0 +2 +19
27. B P1L 1-1 -1 +18
28. B P2L 1-1-1-3 -3 +15 B-8
29. P B1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 +14 7
30. P B1L 1-1-1-1-1-3 -1 +13 6
31. B B1W 1-1-1-1-3 +1 +14 7
32. P B4L 1-1-1-1-3-4 -4 +10 6
33. P B4L 1-1-1-1-3-4-4 -4 +6 5
34. P B4L 1-1-1-1-3-4-4-4 -4 +2 4-B-5 DL-10
35. B B5W 4 +4 +7 6
36. B B4W 1-0 +4 +11 7-R
37. P B1L 1-1 -1 +10
38. B B2W 1-0 +2 +12
39. B P1L 1-1 -1 +11
40. B B2W 1-0 +2 +13
41. B P1L 1-1 -1 +12
42. P P2W 1-0 +2 +14
43. P B1L 1-1 -1 +13
44. P P2W 1-0 +2 +15
45. P B1L 1-1 -1 +14
46. P B2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +12 P-6
47. B P1L 1-1-1-1-3 -1 +11 5
48. P P1W 1-1-1-3 +1 +12 6
49. P P6W 1-0 +6 +18 7-R
50. B P1L 1-1 -1 +16
51. B P2L 1-1-1-3 -2 +14 P-6
52. P P1W 1-1-3 +1 +15 7
53. P P5W 1-0 +5 +20 8-R
54. B P1L 1-1 -1 +19
55. P P2W 1-0 +2 +21
56. P B1L 1-1 -1 +20
57. B P2L 1-1-1 -2 +18 P-6
58. B P1L 1-1-1-1 -1 +17 5
59. P P1W 1-1-1 +1 +18 6
60. P P3W 1-0 +3 +21 7-R
61. B P1L 1-1 -1 +20
62. P P2W 1-0 +2 +22
63. P B1L 1-1 -1 +21
64. P P2W 1-0 +2 +23
65. P B1L 1-1 -1 +22 End
66. P
67. P
68. B
69. P
70. B
71. B
72. P

Ervin

Thanking Ervin again for sharing his methods, that make IBS win more for him risking less bankroll.

Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak

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