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==============================================   Thursday, November 14, 2002
 
Special Progression - Escalating Winnings

Hello everyone,

This week, I would like to present you a special type of progression, which is very suitable for streaky tables or for systems that take advantage of both streaks and chops such as the KISS system, which produces long sequences of consecutive winning bets.

Again, simplicity is the name of the game and the progression consists of betting 1 unit at the start.  Should you lose your bet, you stay at 1 unit.  If you win your bet, you increase or press it by 1 unit at your next bet.  Should you win again, you keep increasing your bet until your first loss.  Then you reduce back to 1 unit.

If you have a winning streak following a few losing bets such as L L L L L W W W W W, this will amount to -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 or to10 units profit.  As the first 5 bets lose, you are betting 1 unit only.  From the first win on, you increase your bet unit by 1 unit for the next 5 wins.

If you have a losing streak following a sequence of winning bets such as W W W W W L L L L L, this will amount to +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 -6 -1 -1 -1 -1 or to 5 units profit.  Since the first bet is a winning one, and the following 4 bets win,  you increase your bet until your first loss.  That loss costs 6 units, as you have pressed your bet from the previous 5 unit bet.  After that loss, the bet is reduced to 1 unit and since it kept losing, it stayed at 1 unit.

In both of the above cases, we have won 5 bets and lost 5 bets and profited 10 and 5 units respectively.  Therefore, for some continuous streaks, this method has some merit.

If your winning bets and losing bets are choppy, this method will not perform too well. 

For instance, if you have a sequence of the nature L W L W L W L W L W, this will amount to -1 +1 -2 +1 -2 +1 -2 +1 -2 +1 or to -4 units, as after each win we press our bet, but since the bet following the winning bet loses, it costs us 2 units.

Let's now take a double chop of the nature L L W W L L W W L L W W.  With our special progression, this will amount to: -1 -1 +1 +2 -3 -1 +1 +2 -3 -1 +1 +2 or to -1 unit.  We see some improvement relative to the previous chop.

How about a triple chop such as L L L W W W L L L W W W.  This will amount to: -1 -1 -1 +1 +2 +3 -4 -1 -1 +1 +2 +3 or to +3 units.  Even better.

We can thus conclude that the more continuous wins we have, the better the performance of this special progression.  And it is not unlikely to get long streaks in Baccarat and also Roulette.

Let's take a look at the following simulation of a Baccarat shoe and see how this progression can produce escalating profits taking advantage of winning streaks, while losing streaks remain at low losses:

The column Cash takes Banker win commissions into account.

W/L Bet Amount	Cash	Net
-----  ----------------  ----------   --------			
L	1	-1	-1
W	1	1	0
L	2	-2	-2
W	1	1	-1
W	2	2	1
L	3	-3	-2
W	1	1	-1
L	2	-2	-3
L	1	-1	-4
W	1	1	-3
W	2	1.9	-1.1
W	3	3	1.9
W	4	3.8	5.7
W	5	5	10.7
L	6	-6	4.7
L	1	-1	3.7
W	1	1	4.7
W	2	1.9	6.6
W	3	3	9.6
W	4	3.8	13.4
W	5	5	18.4
W	6	5.7	24.1
W	7	7	31.1
W	8	7.6	38.7
L	9	-9	29.7
W	1	0.95	30.65
L	2	-2	28.65
W	1	0.95	29.6
W	2	2	31.6
W	3	2.85	34.45
L	4	-4	30.45
W	1	0.95	31.4
W	2	1.9	33.3
W	3	2.85	36.15
L	4	-4	32.15
L	1	-1	31.15
L	1	-1	30.15
W	1	0.95	31.1
W	2	2	33.1
W	3	3	36.1
W	4	3.8	39.9
W	5	4.75	44.65
W	6	6	50.65
W	7	7	57.65
W	8	7.6	65.25
L	9	-9	56.25
L	1	-1	55.25
L	1	-1	54.25
L	1	-1	53.25
W	1	1	54.25
L	2	-2	52.25
W	1	1	53.25
L	2	-2	51.25
W	1	1	52.25
W	2	2	54.25
L	3	-3	51.25
W	1	1	52.25
W	2	1.9	54.15
W	3	3	57.15
L	4	-4	53.15
W	1	1	54.15
W	2	2	56.15
W	3	3	59.15
L	4	-4	55.15
W	1	1	56.15
L	2	-2	54.15
W	1	1	55.15
L	2	-2	53.15
L	1	-1	52.15
L	1	-1	51.15
L	1	-1	50.15
W	1	1	51.15
L	2	-2	49.15
W	1	1	50.15
W	2	2	52.15
L	3	-3	49.15
L	1	-1	48.15
W	1	0.95	49.1

As you can see, with this kind of escalating winnings progression, it's easy to reach a
profit of 60-80 units per shoe, while losing shoes will hardly be lower than -30 units.

Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak

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